David Stephenson#
Laudadio by Martin Beniston#
(a) Research and Scholarship
Professor David Stephenson is one of the world’s leaders in the rapidly growing and important field of Statistical Climatology. In recent years developments have focussed on applying advanced statistical methods to bear on the analysis of climate variability and predictability, and David has been at the forefront of these developments. His work has provided important insights into the dynamics of the climate system, and it has the potential to deliver a wide range of practical benefits for society and commerce. David’s research is characterised by an ability to draw on, and adapt to purpose, knowledge developed in other fields. In particular he has made considerable advances in bridging the interdisciplinary gap between statistics and climate science, and in stimulating new ideas and new research in both disciplines. Thus he has acquired wide international recognition as a leader and innovator in thefield.
David’s research is targeted on the development of novel statistical methods to provide deeper understanding of climate variations, and to improve the quality of weather and climate forecasts. His principal areas of expertise are: climate modes and weather regimes; extreme weather and climate events; and the verification and calibration of weather forecasts. David’s research has contributed to the improvement of long-range weather forecasts. For instance, he has shown: (1) how knowledge of the stratosphere can contribute to improving weather forecasts for the North Atlantic and European regions; (2) how changes in daily weather extremes can be related to mean climate change; and (3) how to assess weather forecasts on a proper statistical basis. Through his collaboration with statisticians, he has introduced powerful new statistical methods of analysis into the field of climate research and prediction.
Over the last two decades David has sustained an impressive publication record. He has published 88 articles in high-quality, refereed journals and more than 5 chapters in books. In 22 of his 88 articles, David is either sole or lead author, and 44 articles were published recently since 2004. His articles have high-impact as evidenced by high citation rates: e, g. more than 250 citations/year in 2009, 25 articles cited more than 25 times, 10 articles highly-cited with more than 50 citations. In 2003, he co-edited a pioneering book on forecast verification, in which he was also a lead author. The book has been so successful that the publisher has asked David for a 2nd edition, which is due to be published in 2011.
David is recognised internationally for his groundbreaking work on climate modes and regimes. As an acknowledged expert on the North Atlantic Oscillation, he has published two comprehensive reviews (Stephenson etal., 2002; Wanner et al., 2001), and he has brought some important insights into the controversial debate on the nature of the NAO and other large—scale patterns of variability in the atmosphere. The climate system is highly non-linear and complex and David’s work is providing new perspectives on the nature of climate variability and predictability. His recent work has challenged a widely accepted view of climate variability. It had been hypothesised that multiple climate regimes could exist, with the climate system flipping chaotically from one to the other. ln a careful statistical analysis (Stephenson et al. 2004), David has shown that climate variability is uni-modal, not rnulti-modal, a result that could lead to a paradigm shift in thinking.
Anthropogenic climate change will not lead simply to a warmer world; patterns of variability are also likely to change as well as the frequency of extreme events. David’s work is providing a quantitative framework to understand such changes and to determine their limits of predictability in practical and policy—related applications.
David is also respected internationally for his work on extreme weather and climate events, an aspect of climate change that is of great concern to policy makers. Stephenson and Held (1993) was one of the first studies to examine how rnid-latitude storms might change due to global warming. This in turn led to his being invited to lead work packages on weather extremes in two major, European-Union funded research projects (PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES). His recent work on extremes has developed methods for relating changes in daily weather extremes to changes in mean climate (e.g. Beniston and Stephenson, 2004). Since 1995, he has initiated and developed successful working collaborations with catastrophe modellers in the global reinsurance industry (e. g. his novel work on the clustering of severe extratropical cyclones). ln 2006, he was a founding member of the Willis Research Network, - a major partnership between academia and the insurance industry.
A further area of research for which David has made notable contributions is the quantitative evaluation ("verification") and calibration of weather and climate forecasts, His work provides has helped provide the quantitative information needed by weather climate prediction centres to judge stringently the quality of the forecasts, and thereby to improve and tailor them to the needs of users, and this has been the basis for procedures adopted on many national centres. David recognised that many sectors of society could benefit from knowledge and application of the techniques that he has developed or helped develop. His proposal to the publisher Wiley & Sons led to a widely praised book (Joliffe and Stephenson, 2003), which has sold more than 1000 copies in its first year. David was the initiator, driving force and intellectual leader of this work.
(b) National and International Recognition of Academic Distinction
In recognition of his research on the application of statistical methods, David has been invited to serve on several editorial and expert teams. He has served two terms as Editor of the Journal of Climate, the leading journal in climate research, and he has participated on expert working groups of the World Meteorological Organisation. He has been an invited convenor for sessions at major national and international conferences and workshops, and he was a lead convenor of a Chapman Conference, sponsored bythe American Geophysical Union, which attracted several hundred of the world’s leading scientists in the field of climate variability. He has initiated and managed several international research projects, for instance, the North Atlantic Oscillation subproject of the Coupled Model Inter~comparison Project sponsored by the World Meteorological Organisation. As a result of his academic distinction, David has given many plenar and review lectures at conferences including more than 10 keynote addresses. .
As further evidence of his international academic standing, David was elected in 2004 to the position of Adjunct Professor at the University of Bergen, Norway, one of the founding institutes of the science of meteorology.
Since 2000, David’s scientific recognition has led to him been awarded 15 research grants, amounting to more than €2 million in research funding. He has won funds from a variety of sources, reflecting the interdisciplinary nature and wide relevance of his research. Included in the funding agencies are: the European Union, the Natural Environmental Research Council, the UK Government (DEFRA), the Met Office, and Electricité de France. David has also successfully supervised 8 postdoctoral research scientists and 8 PhD students. He has also successfully co-supervised 3 PhD students at other universities (Bergen, Paris, Toulouse) and has acted as an external PhD examiner several times in the UK and overseas (France, Spain, Norway).
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